Leeds United

View: Burnley & Everton have forced Leeds United to need “abnormally high” points tally

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Image for View: Burnley & Everton have forced Leeds United to need “abnormally high” points tally

The number crunching has begun for Leeds United as they face an almighty fight to retain their Premier League status.

Leeds lost 4-0 to Manchester City on Saturday, failing to pick up any points on a weekend where Burnley and Everton picked up wins.

As a result of that, Leeds have slipped to 17th and are just a couple of points clear of Everton in 18th, whilst Burnley hover above Jesse Marsch’s side in 16th with a superior goal difference.

Quite what it’s going to take to secure survival is anyone’s guess at this point, with our writers Kris (FA5), Toby (Neutral) and Alfie (N12) discussing what Leeds might need to do:

The upturn in form of those around us makes it a really tough one to judge.

I think that two wins out of our final four games would be enough to see us stay up, and that tells you all you need to know about the challenge we have.

It’s got to the point where we really need to be getting points from either Arsenal or Chelsea, because Everton look much better recently.

Six points for us mean that Everton have to pick up eight from their remaining five, and that would be a tough ask for any team looking to survive.

My concern is I’m just unsure we have enough to win two of our remaining games.

This really all depends on how many points Everton pick up, which could be something of a concern for Leeds.

The Toffees next two games are away from home against a Leicester side with nothing to play for in the league – and off the back of a European semi final in Roma just two days before – which is followed by a clash with a freefalling Watford.

Leeds United quiz: Is Elland Road’s capacity higher or lower than these 15 Premier League stadiums?

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Does Elland Road have a higher or lower capacity than Brentford Community Stadium?

Those both look winnable for Frank Lampard’s side, who after that have two games at Goodison Park, where they have been very strong this season, against inconsistent sides who may have little to play for in Brentford and Palace, meaning they could be picking maximum points from those two as well.

As a result, even though defeat to Arsenal may on the final day would be expected for Everton, they could still make a case for taking 12 points from their remaining five games.

Given Leeds have a two point lead over them, but a much worse goal difference, that could mean that they need to pick up maximum points from their last four games, which is not going to be easy with the likes of Arsenal and Chelsea up next.

Given the form of Leeds, Everton and Burnley in the last month or so, we are looking at an abnormally high tally of points to secure safety.

In years gone by, all three would be relatively safe on what they’ve collected already. As it is, it’s going to be a club with potentially 35+ points going down.

Two wins for Leeds will take them to 40 points, as it will for Burnley.

Assessing the fixtures remaining, Leeds have the two hardest games and probably two ‘easier’ fixtures on paper, with Burnley’s coming against Aston Villa (x2), Tottenham and Newcastle.

However, football isn’t played on paper, as Everton have showed in turning over Manchester United and Chelsea at Goodison recently. That should give Leeds the hope that they can do the same in their fixtures against Arsenal and Chelsea, however mammoth that task is.

It’s also worth pointing out how poor Everton have been on the road this season, with three of their remaining five games away from Goodison Park. It’s hard to make a case for them picking up more than six or seven points given what’s gone before.

The last time you needed 40 points to stay in the Premier League was 2010/11, whilst the last time a side went down with more than that was 2002/03 when West Ham were relegated with 42.

Because of that, I’ll say a minimum of two wins are needed.

How many points will Leeds get from the next three games?

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Leeds United Season Ticket Holder at Elland Road for over 20 seasons. Currently nestled in N12, but occasionally offering views from the press box. We’ve been through it all together? You bet.